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Declining metal prices will mask export volume growth in 2015

放大字体  缩小字体 Release date:2025-05-08  Author:cutting tools  Views:965
Core Tip:MONTREAL — The Canadian governments lending agency for exporters says falling energy and metal prices will mask

MonTREAL — The Canadian governments lending agency for exporters says falling energy and metal prices will mask healthy Canadian export volumes next year.

Export Development Canada forecasts the value of exports will rise 10 per cent this year, but only six per cent in 2015.

Stripping out the impact of sliding prices for resources such as oil, iron ore and copper, export volumes are expected to increase one percentage point to five per cent and stay at that level for several years.

Chief economist Peter Hall says that level of exports is an up shift from 2010 and would be the best stretch since before the 2008 economic recession.

A lower Canadian dollar and surging U.S. economy could even boost export growth beyond EDCs forecast, he says.

Hall says the positive export outlook is driven mainly by the surging U.S. economy, which is growing at a pace as fast or faster than all but one period in the last 20 years.

Exports to Western Europe are holding up despite economic weakness and emerging Asian countries are expected to pick up the pace next year, says EDCs fall Global Export Forecast.

It expects global economic growth will accelerate to four per cent in 2015, from 3.2 per cent this year, fuelled by a 3.6 per cent expansion in the U.S.

Canadas export growth spans many industries and most provinces.

Energy is expected to be the top export performer this year, rising 19 per cent but falling to four per cent in 2015.

Forestry will be runner up at 13 and 10 per cent nationally propelled by higher U.S. housing construction. Also strong is aircraft at 12 and 10 per cent.

A continuing ramp up in U.S. business investment will drive up exports of machinery and equipment, which are expected to increase to 16 per cent in 2015, from eight per cent this year.

Earlier this month, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz said it was taking longer than he expected for Canada to get a bump in new export businesses but he was confident it would happen.

The Conference Board of Canada also says the outlook for economic growth and exports are heading in the right direction after a slow start to the year.

In its provincial outlook released Thursday, the board forecasts the Canadian economy will grow by 2.6 per cent in 2015, up from 2.2 per cent this year.

It says the healthier U.S. economy and slightly weaker Canadian dollar will keep export activity humming.


 
 
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